INSIGHTS & NEWS

. . . Mitigating Morocco’s exposure at Afcon & the FIFA World Cup

In an increasingly complex and interconnected world characterised by deepening levels of unpredictability and uncertainty, the staging of large public events cannot be taken for granted.  From security incidents and cyber-attacks to uncontrollable cascading faults, the eventuality that unforeseeable risk can hamstring – and even bankrupt – large public events, requires comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation.  After all, an event’s ability to survive cancellation, abandonment or postponement depends on adequate mitigation in the form of tailored event-cancellation or interruption cover that addresses as many complex scenarios as possible.

Global sporting events attracting millions of visitors and viewers require meticulous planning and intelligent cover.  This is especially true of events with multiple organisers and agencies collaborating to produce and manage events, such as Afcon 2025/26 and the World Cup 2030.  From project planning and event promotion to the construction of critical infrastructure, organisers’ individual and combined exposure on expenses, investment, costs, liabilities and revenues need comprehensive tailored protection.

Insuring large public events: capital exposure

As host countries seek to de-risk capital exposure relating to investment in infrastructure, the opportunity for insurers in Morocco – one of the most mature insurance markets in Africa with one of the highest insurance penetration rates[1] on the continent – is significant.  As co-hosts with Spain and Portugal, Morocco has committed to refurbishing six football stadiums to the standards demanded by the Confederation of African Football and FIFA.  A new 93,000-seat stadium will be built in Benslimane and, along with the refurbishment of existing stadiums, it comes with a price tag of around US$ 1.5-2 billion.[2]  Further major investment in connectivity, airports, trains,  hospitals, hotel accommodation and sports training facilities is also planned. Investment in highways upgrades alone will account for more than US$ 1 billion after a funding package was agreed with the country’s highways authority, the Société Nationale des Autoroutes du Maroc.  Investment in key infrastructure projects such as the construction of the Rabat-Casablanca Continental highway will bring Morocco’s share of the tri-nation championship funding to  an estimated US$ 5 billion, with Spain and Portugal picking up the remaining US$ 15-20 billion in estimated costs. 

Event exposure: where do the risks lie?

Extreme weather & natural disasters

Extreme weather has historically dominated claims for large public event cancellations.  Given that Morocco is located directly above the Eurasian and African tectonic plates, the country is also prone to earthquakes.  Adequate risk mitigation is therefore a crucial requirement for engineering and construction considerations at Afcon and the World Cup, and existing government programs such as Morocco’s Fund for the Fight against Natural Catastrophes (FLCN) will need to be supplemented with specific cover to address financial loss and liability with respect to earthquake damage.

Cyber risk & ‘hacktivism’

As the Global Head of Cyber Risk for Allianz Commercial notes, “Cyber has become a real and present threat for major events, whether from a malicious attack or a technical glitch.  Given the current geopolitical and cyber-risk landscape, it is clearly a scenario seriously considered for high-profile sporting events”.

Planning, hosting and running large sporting fixtures relies heavily on digital technology, exposing organisers to attacks on ticketing functions, broadcast media, live feeds, advertising schedules and communications technology.  Combined with artificial intelligence’s ability to expose back-door weaknesses and execute attacks, organisers can, according to Allianz Commercial, find themselves with an escalating aggregation of risk.[3] 

Broadcast rights alone are big business, and the Qatar World Cup in 2022 earned FIFA around US$ 2.2 billion.  Failures in transmission due to cyber-attacks put lucrative broadcast rights, advertising and sponsorship deals at risk.  The 2022 World Cup final drew an average of over 570 million people worldwide, with a staggering 1.4 billion football fans watching at least one minute of the final live.  Consequently, stand-alone cyber insurance for large sporting events must consider interruption not only of the individual matches, but also the risk of broadcast and advertising interruption as well as damage to a sponsor’s reputation and brand.

Climate activism, security risks & terrorism

Climate activists have in the past sought to hijack large events with massive worldwide audiences to promote their political messages.  For example, UK climate protesters Just Stop Oil (JSO) caused disruption in 2023 when they invaded the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in the UK and the second cricket test match between England and Australia.

Morocco’s’s principal law-enforcement agencies – SûretéNationale, the Royal Moroccan Gendarmerie and the Moroccan Directorate General of National Security (DGSN)[4] – boast officer numbers in excess of 110,000, making the proportion of officers to citizens far higher, for example, than the EU median figure of 300 for every 10,000 citizens.[5]  Nevertheless, with evidence suggesting that legislative measures to combat climate activism will force offenders underground, the additional burden on law-enforcement agencies risks spreading resources too thinly.

Security threats, meanwhile, represented the biggest risk to sporting events in 2024.  The French authorities deployed around 45,000 police officers and security forces at the Olympics last summer.  “The larger and more global an event becomes”, says Regional Head of Entertainment Insurance at Allianz Commercial, “the more it is exposed to geopolitical risks and security threats. Large international sporting events attract global attention and therefore can be targeted for politically motivated attacks, as well as civil unrest and protests by people looking to be heard.”[6]  

The JENOA view: risk & opportunity

Capital exposure to redundant or underused infrastructure is not the only headache faced by host countries.  Risk management is a multi-faceted problem, and the more complex an event, the greater the requirement to undertake comprehensive scenario planning to mitigate the risk of unforeseeable cascading events across multiple jurisdictions.  Comprehensive scenario planning can go some way to mitigating these risks, and the rapid development of AI models will play an increasing role.

Although in the early stages of development, generative AI (GenAI) promises to deliver unprecedented benefits to re/insurers as they navigate the complex task of assessing and managing risk for large sporting events.  GenAI is able to compensate for human weakness in scenario and disaster planning, whereby humans are prone to keep returning to past experiences – historical loss data, for example – to guide their analysis of future events.  To counter what Willis Towers Watson calls a “narrowing of the human mind”, GenAI offers scenario planners tools to overcome the imaginative failures that can lead to blind-spots in human-generated risk-scenario analysis.  Organisers and re/insurers can reduce exposure to unforeseen risk[7] through GenAI-driven analysis.  

Implications for MENA clients & how JENOA can help

From an investment-exposure perspective, there is a clear opportunity to design cover for the multitude of infrastructure projects needed for the 2030 World Cup.  The need to safeguard the long-term sustainability of infrastructure projects in the country and improve resilience requires intelligent re/insurance solutions, offering re/insurers in the region considerable opportunities.

Access to Lloyd’s of London and reinsurance hubs around the world makes JENOA a reliable and experienced partner when it comes to advising clients and insurers on large-event insurance, in what will be a very complex risk landscape across Afcon 2025/2026 and the 2030 World Cup.

The opportunities for the region’s insurers are significant.  According to the Middle East Insurance Review, in respect of Saudi Arabia’s winning bid to host the 2034 tournament, “the World Cup could represent a sizeable item on insurers’ revenue line – as protection for just about every risk imaginable picks up, from health to travel, cancellation or postponement of the event due to bad weather, fire, non-appearance of players or terror attacks.”

Protecting the legacy

The cost of jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup may come with a price tag of around US$ 5 billion for Morocco, but there is potential for the tournament to leave a lasting legacy in the country.  The risks associated with the World Cup and, to a lesser degree, Afcon 2025/26 are nevertheless substantial, and will require intelligent cover to protect the legacy of that investment for generations to come.

Footnotes »